Given that Game 1 of the State of Origin series is scheduled to take place in Sydney, we anticipate a victory for the New South Wales Blues in this crucial opening encounter. The Blues roster appears a more cohesive unit and possesses, in our opinion, superior attacking nous among the traditional warhorses that also includes seven new faces. Typically, with Origin you need to own the middle third of the park and get your kicking game right, completing sets with pin-point accuracy. The precision of Nathan Cleary and Mitch Moses brings that accuracy which will be critical once in a dominant position. Both know how to control a game and manage a side going forward with purpose.

Manly flyer Tolu Koula has claimed the vacant wing spot Zac Lomax filled last year, with Panthers young gun Casey McLean named on the bench as outside backs cover alongside Raiders utility Ethan Strange. Kotoni Staggs steps into Latrell Mitchell's centre spot and he will be out to have a blinder covering for the injured star and prove he can make an impact with a powerful performance.

The selection for the number one jersey presented a significant challenge for coach Laurie Daley, as Tedesco was ultimately chosen over incumbent, Dylan Edwards. The 33-year-old last featured for NSW in Game I of the 2024 series, having been dropped and then recalled. The foward pack is a fairly stable bunch of big name leaders, and there is plenty of big game experience included, with Yeo, Cam Murray, Mitch Barnett and Fonua-Blake. Daley has stuck to a winning formula of old heads who will go to war for the Blues jersey and know how to win close games.

Billy Slater has opted for Kalyn Ponga to return at fullback for the Maroons, leaving Reece Walsh in the wilderness after powering the Broncos to the 2025 premiership and excelling for the Kangaroos in the Ashes late last year. Overall the squad doesn't seem that inspiring on paper, but when the jersey goes on they tend to go to another level for their State. Pongia is an attacking weapon at best, but there has to be some concern over Sam Walker and Cameron Munster combination in the halfs. They will need to link with a speedy backline and attempt to put them into gaps to open the game up with urgency. Walker's kicking game is not a scratch on Cleary's and under pressure he can lose focus and go missing.

There are five players who are potentially in line for their Queensland debuts, including Ezra Mam, who served as the 18th man in Game II last year but did not have the opportunity to play. Roosters halfback Sam Walker has been selected to replace the injured Tom Dearden, the 2025 player of the series, while Gold Coast speedster Jojo Fifita will be on the wing following Valentine Holmes's subpar club performance with last-placed St George Illawarra. Kiwi forward Briton Nikora will make his State of Origin debut after being named in the Queensland team.

The forwards exhibit a deficiency in size, indicating Slater's strategic emphasis on enhanced mobility around the ruck and a potential objective to maintain a high-tempo game to outmaneuver the Blues forwards. This appears their main advantage but they really won't what to get bogged down in a brutal forward battle through the middle of the field, as the NSW lads could gain the ascendancy, based on size, strength and combined experience.

Game I of State of Origin usually involves a feeling out period where the forwards try to bash the crap out of each other before the game finds any genuine flow. The initial quarter holds significant potential in determining the trajectory of this match, and Nathan Cleary is presented with a prime opportunity to establish a strong foundation for his team by effectively containing the Queenslanders for a sustained period. If it goes the way we predict then NSW can gain the ascendancy and take control by halftime. Possibly not much in it at full time but a couple of first half tries may be all that’s required to keep the pressure on throughout the full 80 minutes. NSW, but always beware the pride and grit of the Queenslanders.

Head to Head - NSW BLUES

Margin - NSW 1-12

First try scorer - Stephen Crichton