NEW ZEALAND OAKS G1

RACE 8 - 2400m

OHOPE WINS / ULTIMATE HABIT / SINGLE RED

OHOPE WINS stormed home to win the Gr.2 Sir Patrick Hogan Stakes (2000m) at Ellerslie on New Year’s Day, which catapulted her into favouritism Oaks, before producing a stunning sprint to rush the line late and capture the Gr.2 Ellis Filles Classic (2100m) at Te Rapa ridden by Joe Doyle. Yulong Investments furthered their position among New Zealand’s racing ranks with the purchase of the eye-catching OCEAN PARK filly and she will do most of her racing in Australia after this, but the Oaks/Derby double must be deep in the minds of Lance O'Sullivan and Andrew Scott. It may be a case of, good luck beating her if Doyle can steer into some clear air once turning in and she does look something special.

☆☆☆☆☆

Three-year-old filly ULTIMATE HABIT took an important step toward her tilt at the Gr.1 NZ Oaks at Ellerslie with a strong trial win at Te Aroha. The daughter of EMBELLISH oozed quality when coming from last in an 1100m heat to win under her own steam in a trial against quality older horses. Trainer Robbie Patterson said Ultimate Habit had made good progress since her Lowland victory, which came at just start number four. Ultimate Habit was bred by Hawke’s Bay couple Graham and Isabell Roddick and stems from the same family as 11-time Group One winner ROUGH HABIT, hence the name. Smart filly, but will need to be to hold off the favourite.

☆☆☆

SINGLE RED is poised to rekindle her rivalry with OHOPE WINS in the Gr.1 NZ Oaks, despite having been challenged early in the straight during the Fillies Classic at Te Rapa, which likely contributed to her fatigue as the classy Wexford horse secured victory right on the line. Fresh from riding his 100th Group One winner, star jockey Opie Bosson will grab the reins on Single Red, taking over from Bruno Queiroz. The Andrew Forsman-trained VANBURGH filly was game winning at Te Rapa at January, before a strong finish to win again over 1650m at Waverley. Looks a really progressive filly who can go close with added fitness.

☆☆

OTAKI-MAORI WFA CLASSIC G1

RACE 6 - 1600m

PIER / TUXEDO / EL VENCEDOR

PIER is a quality racehorse who possibly hasn't quite reached his career pinnacle just yet, but he really grew up and bulked out during 18 months in Australia. The son of PROISIR had his first-up run in the BCD Sprint at Te Rapa and co-trainer Darryn Weatherley is confident his bay will perform well with that intial run out of the way. The 5th place to FIRST FIVE was a credible result fresh up. Pier’s last preparation in Australia proved that he is a legitimate horse, finishing fourth to VIA SISTINA  in the Champions Stakes (2000m) and placing behind CEOLWULF in the King Charles (1600m). Could possibly be susceptible that last bit as free running type, but will get on with the job and we know McNab will want to return with a bang.

☆☆☆☆

TUXEDO emerged victorious in the $1M Aotearoa Classic for four-year-olds on Karaka Millions night, following a meticulously executed ride by Opie Bosson that enabled him to overcome HINEKAHA in the final 50m. The custom-designed black and white checkered blinkers appeared to be highly effective, significantly improving the performance of the TIVACI gelding following his uninspired showing in the Rich Hill Mile. A commendable second-place finish to the dual Group 1 winner, FIRST FIVE in the J. Swap sprint suggested that he was in excellent condition to commence the campaign for trainers Shaun Ritchie and Colm Murray and fitness wise should be at absolute peak condition. Expect another top effort from this quality galloper.

☆☆☆

We were eager to support EL VENCEDOR at Te Rapa, and he demonstrated remarkable resilience, securing fourth place behind LEGARTO and KINGSWOOD in the 2000m Gr.1 Herbie Dyke Stakes during his most recent outing. The horse did not perform as expected after a break at Ellerslie, and was forced to race wide in the Zabeel Classic on Boxing Day, indicating that the season has suffered a few hiccups compared to the previous one - which was awesome. Demonstrated strong performance when finishing second to MARY SHAN in the Challenge Stakes, and a return to the mile distance on his preferred track is anticipated to be highly advantageous. The BIG EV is brilliant WFA galloper at best and we imagine Marsh will want the SHOCKING gelding to deliver a Group 1 this prep.

☆☆

AVONDALE CUP G3

RACE 7 - 2400m

THE PRECURSOR / WHANGAEHU / SANTA CATALINA

How good THE PRECURSOR might be was put to bed last start when winning the Remutaka Classic (2100m) at Trentham and he really powered up to the line. A big, hulking beast of a boy, Roger James exclaimed he's probably never trained a horse this size, and he is imposing to look at up close. Won very well over the mile at New Plymouth on a Soft 7 after finishing 2nd to WAR OF SUCCESSION over 2100m at Ellerslie and 2nd to OMEGA BOY at Trentham. The former Australian galloper by Melbourne Cup winning sire ST JEAN was fairly consistent in five runs across the ditch, but appears an even better horse now. Genuine pace then right in this contest and looks hard to beat at the trip as a highly progressive stayer.

☆☆☆☆

The PROISIR Gelding from Waverley, WHANGAEHU came from the back of the field with a stout run for 3rd at Ellerslie under 61kg, conceding seven kilos to the Stephen Marsh pair of SINHAMAN and KIWI SKYHAWK. That performance elevated the seven-year-old to an $8 second favourite for next month’s Gr.2 Auckland Cup. It will be Whangaehu’s second crack at the Cup after he finished seventh in the 2024 edition. Co-trainers Bill Thurlow and Sam O'Malley will make their second trip to the big smoke this year with the horse, who Thurlow believes has become more dour and just needs a genuine pace to get into a true rhythm and deliver a sustained finish. The team seem happy with his progress and this trip should suit well as the final prep run.

☆☆☆

We feel we need to stick by SANTA CATALINA returning to her happy hunting ground of ELLERSLIE after a tough, but fair run for 7th in the Wellington Cup (3200m) last start. It is evident that Peter and Shaun McKay are keenly pursuing a Cup victory with this particular PUCCUNI mare, and she appears to be somewhat undervalued by the betting public. Won here over 2400m in November, then repeated the dose in the Gr.3 Queen Elizabeth II Cup (2400m) on New Year’s Day. The father and son team are brilliant conditioners of stayers and we think she can cause an upset back in Auckland. Keep very safe.

☆☆

AVONDALE GUINEAS G2

RACE 5 - 2100m 3YO

ROAD TO PARIS / THAT'S GOLD / YAMATO SATONA

The James/Wellwood stable are literally smokin hot at present and ROAD TO PARIS appears another developing star within their talent pool. This three-year-old CIRCUS MAXIMUS gelding bred and owned by Ron and Judy Wanless, won at Avondale, before dislodging Masa Hashizume when shifting out abruptly at the 200m in the Wellington Guineas. Just OK in the Levin Classic after being slow away and did a good job despite suffering interference. Short neck 2nd to ASKIL over the mile at Ellerslie last start, although we believe the Kingsclere team will have him set for the 2100m and the pedigree says the horse will stay the Derby distance. Has a bit to prove here but well worth considering.

☆☆☆☆

Sam Collett judged the ride perfectly aboard THAT’S GOLD when winning the Karapiro Classic at Te Rapa last start and the LUCKY VEGA gelding has gone from strength to strength since winning the Gr.3 Bonecrusher Stakes at Pukekohe in early December. Didn't have the easiest of times in the two runs inbetween, but still managed a credible 5th to WELL WRITTEN in the Auckland Guineas from a wide draw and 3rd to CHILLING OUT at Ellerslie over 1500m after forcing himself through the gates early and being vet checked. The Chris Wood trained gelding is still on a learning curve, but may really appreciate this distance if able to settle into stride as fit horse.

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YAMATO SATONA hit the lead at one point in the Waikato Guineas before AUTUMN GLORY reeled him, with the SATONO ALADDIN gelding running about the last bit due to fatigue. Yamato Satona was a $250,000 purchase at the Karaka Yearling Sales by top harness trainer Barry Purdon, his wife Katrina. They entrusted Lance O’Sullivan and Andrew Scott with his training and he showed ability from an early stage. Scored incredible win on debut over 1400m at Rotorua back in October, where he came from near last on the home turn to gather in the front runners in the shadows of the winning post. His work has been very good and as long as he performs to expectations here, the colt will head to the Gr.1 NZ Derby.

☆☆

UNCLE REMUS STAKES G3

RACE 4 - 1400m

PANTHER / BELLE CHEVAL / BULGARI

The Wexford trained PANTHER was not helped by a poor ride last start when Rory Hutching allowed the ACE HIGH gelding to drift to the rear before powering up to finish 2nd to ESPASDAS over 1100m here. We were quite taken by the powerful win when PANTHER made an impressive return to racing over 1200m at Tauranga earlier in the month. The Lance O’Sullivan and Andrew Scott-trained Panther made his debut as an autumn two-year-old with a second placing over 1200 metres at Te Rapa in April. A spring setback meant his long-awaited second start came more than eight months later, but it was a performance that was worth the wait. Will have to beat a good one here, but potentially up to it.

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The accomplished filly, BELLE CHEVAL, opted to forgo the wet Matamata track last weekend, choosing instead to compete at Ellerslie, a venue where she has previously achieved two quality victories, and is emerging as a new champion, poised to build upon her recent success. The Te Akau-trained SAVABEEL filly was highly impressive bursting away at the 250m to win over 1400m in her second run, then urged closer and brave finishing 3rd to WELL WRITTEN and LOLLAPALOOZA in the Gr.1 NZ 1000 Guineas (1600m) at Riccarton. Turned up on Karaka Millions night to take out the Gr.3 Almanzor Trophy (1200m) in fine style, and she really does look the complete package. Could be hard to hold out once again as a horse with immense potential.

☆☆☆

Co-trainers Darryn and Briar Weatherley were rapt with BULGARI's runner-up effort behind BELLE CHEVAL in the Gr.3 Almanzor Trophy (1200m) at Ellerslie, and they are now eyeing black-type success with the HELLO YOUMZAIN colt. He showed plenty of promise when winning on debut over 1100m at Te Rapa as a juvenile but was unplaced in his subsequent five outings as a three-year-old, including a midfield performance in the Gr.2 Auckland Guineas (1400m) on Boxing Day. Travelled well in the Almanzor, and even held up for a few strides in the straight which could have seen him finish closer. Will need to find a couple of lengths, but near peak condition.

☆☆

OPEN HANDICAP

RACE 9 - 1200m

DECEMBER / SHOES / ESPIONAGE

DECEMBER is a high quality sprinter who hasn't always experienced the best of luck, and that was evident when blocked for racing room on New Year’s Day when resuming and winding up dead last. The SHAMEXPRESS gelding trained by the James/Wellwood team hadn't raced since March when 2nd to Thorndon Mile victor DOCTOR ASKAR in the Flying Hcp at Trentham with a big effort and defeated dual G1 winner FIRST FIVE at Matamata the run prior. That's pretty impressive form against horses that have come on well and we expect the same from him with better luck in the running. Dynamic at best and worth considering at reasonable odds.

☆☆☆☆

SHOES is a mighty little sprinter from the Pam Gerard stable who was only just nabbed late by SWEYNESDAY at Ellerslie on New Year’s Day, then travelled all the way to Riccarton but was tripped up by a Heavy track. Finished 2nd to FORCE OF NATURE at Te Rapa, and runner-up to VELOCIOUS on that course in the Autumn, before a 3rd place to TWAIN on another very Heavy track. Suited to Ellerslie with the firm footing and this five-year-old DERRYN mare will jump on the bunny and run the only way she knows - flat out. Fitter and back on this course makes her a decent chance at odds.

☆☆☆

The Ex Aussie galloper ESPIONAGE now with Te Akau showed he has plenty in the tank when 3rd to SWEYNESDAY at Ellerslie in his New Zealand debut, although the stallion lost ground early in the Gr.1 Railway (1200m) on Karaka Millions night and never stood a chance. Potentially, just a throw at the stumps, but the ZOUSTAR entire is much better than that. Won the Gr.3 Kindergarten Stakes in 2024 and ran 5th behind the unbeaten AUTUMN GLOW in the Gr.2 Theo Marks at Rosehill in September. Should have trained on and be more competitive in this.

☆☆

BENCHMARK 75 HANDICAP

RACE 3 - 1400m

ESPASDAS / LARIUS LACUS / DELZ ABEEL

Boxing Day favourite ESPASDAS was sensationally late scratched at the barriers after the farrier failed to re-shoe him when casting a plate going around to the start. Weird to see him give it away after the horse acted up, as normally this isn't an issue. Nevertheless, the ACE HIGH gelding trained by the Clotworthy's has looked very tidy and won well here at the latest over 1100m in front of the fast charging PANTHER. Took over to win here at the 1200m when racing wide without cover, so has to be in your numbers as a nice type ready to win again.

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Donna Logan had LARIUS LACUS running well before striking a strong 1400m field here at Ellerslie where the race shape really didn't suit. The TURN ME LOOSE mare was coming off a 2nd at Te Aroha before winning there over 1300m in December. Bounced back from that duff run with a nice late run for 3rd behind DRAMATIC MISS, as the mare does tend to settle well back before rushing hard to the line with room to move. The Logan team has demonstrated remarkable performance recently, as the skilled trainer endeavours to re-establish her racing brand from Byerley Park.

☆☆☆

DELZ ABEEL could be one worth considering after being badly inconvenienced at the 150m at Ellerslie in his latest outing, but the SWISS ACE gelding was building well before that, with a fighting 5th at Tauranga fresh up, before being held up and shifting across heels to finish 3rd at Pukekohe over 1300m. The Tony Pike trained gelding was super winning three in a row on the Cambridge synthetic mid-winter and probably will appreciate a firm surface and a clear run home. Certainly should be holding a high level of fitness, so not totally out of this.

☆☆

MAIDEN TWO-YEAR-OLD

RACE 1 - 1100m

SEIZE THE DAY / CAPITAL EXPRESS / PERFECT CHAOS

Te Akau have been saving up the juvenile SEIZE THE DAY for a rainy day, although this expensive I AM INVINCIBLE yearling had plenty of education at the trials, winning the first of five with blinkers added. The gear change had a positive effect with the colt keen to put himself in the lead early and held a big margin throughout, finishing in front of STORMLINIEN and DASHING DIXIE, and both those horse went on to win impressively on debut. Looks a super slick customer who could lead all the way, with potentially the Sistema and Sires’ in mind.

☆☆☆☆

CAPITAL EXPRESS was considered a late chance of making the 2YO Karaka Millions Classic at the 11th hour, however, that plan went our the window when finishing 5th on debut after pressing hard to make the lead, with the big effort taking a toll first time to the races. The Paul Pertab-trained CAPTIVANT colt looked very good winning his first two jumpouts in early spring and his fine condition was evident when parading at Ellerslie. Has trialed since but will need to discover some extra confidence with a strong ride necessary from Wiremu Pinn. Promising type

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It is challenging to identify any significant drawbacks in the lineage of PERFECT CHAOS, a filly by HELLO YOUMZAIN, trained by Stephen Marsh. Her dam, KALI, a Darci Brahma mare, achieved three victories from six starts in a brief yet impactful racing career. PERFECT CHAOS herself secured a win in her sole 800m trial before finishing second to PINAFORE in her debut at Wairarapa a fortnight ago, run down late after setting up the victory nicely. Won't have it easy if attempting to break them early as SEIZE THE DAY will be breathing down her neck from the get go. Can place with Aussie aboard.

☆☆

BEST BET: OHOPE WINS

NEXT BEST: ROAD TO PARIS

BEST VALUE: PANTHER

WILDCARD: SANTA CATALINA