BALMERINO STAKES G3
RACE 8  - 2000m WFA

EL VENCEDOR / SHARP N SMART / THE ODYSSEY

The Big EV must be closing in on absolute peak fitness, and the Stephen Marsh trained EL VENCEDOR hasn't been terrible in the three G1 runs back from a spell. Held up rounding the final turn when 5th in the Proisir, then fair in the mile at Te Rapa. The seven-year-old SHOCKING gelding was in barnstorming form last season, winning the Gr.3 WFA Balmerino, Fulton Stakes, Gr.1 Herbie Dyke, Gr.1 Otaki-Maori Classic and the Gr.1 Bonecrusher, before having a crack at Sha Tin in the QEII Cup. Run down late by WAITAK in the Livamol Classic last start when looking the winner and probably has a bit left to give improvement wise. Be a brave person willing to punt against him claiming victory on Tuesday as his record here at Racing HQ is sublime.

☆☆☆☆☆

It's been three years since SHARP ‘N’ SMART won the Gr.3 Gloaming, Gr.1 Champion Stakes in Australia and finished 2nd in the Gr.1 VRC Derby at Flemington, before returning home to take out the Gr.1 Herbie Dyke and Gr.1 NZ Derby. Suffered a viral blood disorder which scuttled a Melbourne Cup campaign, but he did run in the 2024 event without success. Regardless, the REDWOOD gelding is a powerful beast who has been hindered by slow starts recently despite the class to excel against formidable opposition. Gets out to a distance that better suits his racing style and the Rogerson's stable star can cause an upset as a well conditioned horse who finished into 3rd behind WAITAK and EL VENCEDOR here in the Gr.1 Livamol Classic last start. Brilliant at best, ready to peak and can win.

☆☆☆

Ben & Ryan Foote have pressed the right buttons with their ZACINTO gelding THE ODYSSEY who has been a model of consistency throughout his career and he did a number on them winning here impressively two weeks ago. Won at Ellerslie over 2100m twelve months back, before finishing 3rd at Tauranga and 4th behind NEREUS in the Gr.3 Counties Cup. Ran 3rd in the Waikato Cup with a strong late effort over 2400m, then won at Pukekohe over 2100m. Begun awkwardly and held up rounding the bend resuming over 1300m at Taupo, but it was a top run for 3rd at a shorter trip. Pretty nice winning strike rate and will be strong to the line once again. May lack the class of a multiple G1 winner, but obviously in a peaked state of fitness and you can't knock winning form.

☆☆

OPEN HANDICAP
RACE 7 - 1500m

TARDELLI / CANNON HILL / MALI STON

If Stephen Marsh starts TARDELLI here then he could be a top chance after exhibiting some serious ability as a three-year-old in NZ. TARDELLI charged from the rear to defeat ROMILLY in the last on Champions Day at Ellerslie and it was an impressive effort by the I AM INVINCIBLE colt. He had been progressing along on an upward trajectory since winning his maiden over 1200m at Matamata. Originally with the O'Shea/ Charlton team in Sydney, the colt ran three times at Randwick before transferring to NZ. Finished 3rd to SAVAGLEE in the Gr.2 Levin Classic, then 2nd to PENMAN over 1400m at Tauranga. Closed gamely behind SETHITO and DEALT WITH in the Listed Uncle Remus Stakes before the big Auckland win over 1500m. Looks the standout by a margin after going down to ARABIAN SONGBIRD here last start when jumping hot fave, although scored no favours when forced wide from the 600m. Looks the obvious choice.

☆☆☆☆

CANNON HILL comes out of the of the strong Tony Pike yard and made a bright return for 5th before a fine 2nd behind TARDELLI here at Ellerslie. The ARDROSSAN gelding bred by Waikato Stud has been a model of consistency and has rarely finished out of the money. Won here with a big finish over 1400m last Nov, then resumed in April at Te Rapa, almost catching KARMAN LINE over 1400m, before proving too strong stepping up to the mile there. He is out of a PINS mare and if you throw O'REILLY into the mix, the pedigree reads very well. Good while fresh, claims 3kg with Sam McNab in the saddle and his Ellerslie record is pretty sound. Tends to get back early, however from this gate likely to gain some cover and fire up late, plus should strip a tad sharper after a fair last start effort.

☆☆☆

Willing to speculate on a serious roughie in MALI STON from the Weatherley's camp who has the ability to upset on his day and he wasn't too bad in the delayed Matamata Cup when fighting into 6th place. The eight-year-old EL ROCA gelding won four straight early in his career, including the Rich Hill Mile. Finished 3rd in the Thorndon Mile at Trentham and has mixed it with the best on occasions. In and out type since then, with a 2nd in Foxbridge last year and a 3rd in the Matamata Cup 12 months before. Fought on for 5th in a strong sprint field at Te Rapa and sure to be running on late. Could be good to go here, but plenty of depth and it doesn't get any easier for sure.

☆☆

THREE-YEAR-OLD SW&P
RACE 4 - 1400m

AFFIRMATIVE ACTION / BULGARI / ORATIA BEAUTY

Pam Gerard pulled of a major upset when her bay gelding AFFIRMATIVE ACTION came out and smashed a nice field in the Sir Colin Meads Trophy paying $91 at fixed odds. The YES YES YES gelding showed enough at the trials and finished 3rd to TO BRAVERY BORN at Taupo, so he wasn't exactly flying under the radar. Gerard is delighted to have another classy three-year-old in her Matamata stable, having guided fellow Karaka graduate SAVAGLEE to win the Group One New Zealand 2000 Guineas and three G2 races last season. Was down to run in the Gr.2 Sarten at Te Rapa on the way to the Guineas after WELL WRITTEN did a number on them at Ellerslie, however the Waikato abandonment forced Gerards hand and she has gone down this path instead.

☆☆☆☆

BULGARI will appreciate another crack at this trip and the HELLO YOUMZAIN gelding should be much stronger for recent racing. Won on debut as a two-year-old in April, before a decent jumpout effort behind QUEEN'S EVIDENCE in an 850m trial at Waipa. Resumed with a wide late run in the Sir Colin Meads Trophy (1200m) at Ellerslie and was just too far off them to be effective. Hampered shortly after the start in the Gr.2 Hawkes Bay Guineas (1400m), so never really settled, before fighting closer from the turn. Forced wider once again prior to the post over 1150m at Te Aroha, but got on with job and finished off in 4th spot. Can play a role with a sweeter run, and he really deserves a change in fortune.

☆☆☆

Hard to go past a TOO DARN HOT filly, and this one ORATIA BEAUTY does appear to possess some genuine ability. Her dam, ORATIA by REDOUTE'S CHOICE only raced seven times, with two strong wins at Avondale and finished 4th in a Sunline Vase. Her mother, MISS MAREN (Stravinsky) raced successfully in Australia, running 2nd in the 2009 Gr.1 McKinnon Stakes. Plenty to like about this pedigree as Kylie Hoskin may have a good one here and she has shown them a fair bit of potential. Some faith required after an ok run for 6th in Gr.2 Soliloquy here last start, but Matt Cameron should offer a strong ride.

☆☆

BENCHMARK 75 HANDICAP
RACE 6 - 2400m

SANTA CATALINA / UNEQUIVOCAL / CLEESE

We're not far off Santa delivering to all the good boys and girls, and we will be hoping SANTA CATALINA can deliver early at Ellerslie on Tuesday. The Peter & Shaun McKay PUCCUNI mare is bred to stay and wasn't too bad when 6th here over 2100m last start. Won a 2400m contest at Ellerslie back in September when getting back past midfield, before a game finish to reel in BRIAN LAMONT. A fairly consistent staying mare, she should arrive in hard condition and although she can get back further than intended at times, an opportunity exists to deliver a big performance over this endurance trip. No Melbourne Cup, but it will feel like it for connections if the mare can get home hard to win.

☆☆☆☆

Andrew Forsman has tried to squeeze that little bit extra out of this EMINENT mare UNEQUIVOCAL and she appears in a strong position here to feature after some nice trackwork recently. Resumed with a third placings at Ellerslie, strong to the line and ran on nicely at Counties before a powerful win from an awkward position over 2200m at Wairarapa. Improved from 10th at the 700m to come wider at the 200m and win easily. Put in another big effort over 2400m in the Dunstan Stayers at Ellerslie to finished 3rd after improving from 15th place, powering home out wide. Should the mare duplicate her best performance, she stands an excellent chance of victory. Matt Cartwright in the saddle, top stable - can go very close.

☆☆☆

Willing to take a risk on the eight-year-old CLEESE once again as the SWEET ORANGE gelding hasn't been too bad this prep without scoring a win - but at this stage it appears we're a glutton for punishment. Regardless, trainer John Bell will have him in good condition after the last few runs at Ellerslie when 6th, and Te Rapa where the gelding became unbalanced at the 300m after making contact with another runner. Finished 2nd to WESSEX over 1400m in July, then super game when runner-up to NEST EGG over 2100m in Sept and a brave 4th to GIGI at Te Rapa. Handles Good to Heavy tracks so a versatile horse and allow another chance on this course as in a high state of fitness. Just the type to upset despite lacking class, but the 3kg claim off helps.

☆☆


BENCHMARK 75 HANDICAP
RACE 10 - 1400m

SHE'S A DEALER / RISQUE RULER / MOXIE

The ACE HIGH mare SHE'S A DEALER looks ready to fly with an impressive trial over 1100m at Ellerslie recently. Trained by the Kingsclere team at Cambridge, the mare was brought along slowly before delivering nothing on debut in March. Got it right in the next when offering up a well-timed run to win over 1400m at Ellerslie, then beat home a few nice three-year-olds over the mile at Te Rapa in April. Put on ice before flying to Australia where the filly finished 2nd over 1800m on a Heavy Randwick track, then made the road trip to Queensland for the Oaks. Delivered an admirable run in the Gr.1 QLD Oaks (2200m) fighting on for 5th when going forward from an awkward gate. Sure to be better as a more mature, well-travelled mare and will give it heaps fresh up.

☆☆☆☆

RISQUE RULER is one classy customer, as proved when storming home from last to win at Te Rapa, but his opening odds here reflect little confidence. The 3yo MONGOLIAN KHAN mare was in sublime form since winning over the mile at Ellerslie last November. Huge finish to reel them in over 1300m at Waikato before closing strongly for 2nd over 1500m on New Year's Day. Restrained early at Te Rapa and trapped back in 14th place before charging home with extreme sprinting power to overhaul the field. Janelle Miller has developed this mare splendidly, and there shouldn't be too many to fear here. A better jump then good enough to charge home late, although sure to appreciate this run.

☆☆☆

MOXIE came across as a talented type during her three-year-old campaign who has needed more racing to learn some ringcraft. The STRASBOURG mare won here on debut over 1200m after two fine trials, then couldn't find a finish after racing too keenly at Te Rapa in the next. Returning to Auckland, the young filly delivered a strong performance over 1400m, securing an impressive victory when bursting through the middle after being trapped back on the outer. Raced wide resuming at Ellerslie 10 days ago, and put in a good effort for 3rd= after running wide throughout and overracing a bit. With that out of the system she could offer a balanced 2nd-up performance and one to watch out for.

☆☆

BENCHMARK 65 HANDICAP
RACE 1 - 1100m

HARD ROCA / MISS FLADGATE / KIA KAHA

Eventually, HARD ROCA is going to come out put them away with a big performance for the Forsman team, and it could be in the opener on Melbourne Cup Tuesday. The EL ROCA gelding was solid in strong three-year-old company last season, after winning a maiden 3YO in Nov. Finished 4th in the Bonecrusher to SETHIO, then 4th to WILLYDOIT and TUXEDO at Ellerslie over the mile. Battled on well for 3rd behind DEALT WITH at Counties, then no go in the Windsor Park Trophy. Resumed with a sound 3rd on a Heavy 8 at Te Rapa, and ran on late here last start, so close to something more positive. Tricky field to kick off the meeting.

☆☆☆☆

MISS FLADGATE was strong to the line when winning her maiden over 1200m here last start and a repeat performance wouldn't surprise. The RUSSIAN REVOLUTION mare wasn't too far away in 3YO company and was unlucky not to score over the latter part of the racing season. Finished 2nd on debut, then 3rd at both Auckland and Hamilton before a spell. Put the writing on the wall with a fresh up 2nd, before a strong burst to defeat the highly rated maiden, GOLDEN WINGS. Can go well.

☆☆☆

The other Marsh runner, KIA KAHA will jump well over the odds here for a SUPER SETH, who has won one from two to begin her career. Cannot be totally ruled out with Craig Grylls riding despite drawing out wide. Her dam COLDPLAY (Savabeel) was a real beauty who won the Gr.2 Rich Hill Mile and Cal Izuzu Stakes and Gr.3 Eulogy and Eagle Technology, so the apple doesn't fall far from the tree. KIA KAHA won well on debut at Matamata, but lost the plot in her only other run and just overcooked herself. More settled here and we could see a healthier performance. $31 just crazy.

☆☆

BENCHMARK 65 HANDICAP
RACE 5 - 1600m

FOSSE / HAKKINEN / BERRY BROWN

The DARCI BRAHMA mare FOSSE appears well-positioned here and the early odds are super tidy for such a progressive type. Finished 3rd on debut a year ago behind a good one in SMART LOVE, before looming up to produce a dominant win over 1560m at Rotorua. Swamped late resuming in April, then not seen until a wide run for 2nd over 1300m at Ellerslie in August. Held up in the straight back at Ellerslie and struck on the head by a whip when it all got a bit tight, so best to forgive and move on. Grylls takes the reins again and has the ability to win this for the Ramsey/Ritchie team. Average BM65, so $7.00 sits well.

☆☆☆☆

Team Te Akau fully blew it on Saturday with their big guns not firing and may be looking for redemption over the next few weeks. It could start here with the SAVABEEL gelding HAKKINEN who has drawn out, but has returned looking a picture of health. Finished 2nd on debut in December, before an easy win over the mile at Matamata. Harder when 4th in the Gingernuts Salver, then another 4th in the Avondale Guineas, before no dash in the NZ Derby. Good 3rd resuming at 1400m, but likely to show much more going up to the 1600m and the 3kg claim with Hassman on a bonus.

☆☆☆

BERRY BROWN is an interesting character who has possibly come right for Andrew Forsman this prep and seems at big overs for a lightly raced mare yet to really stamp her mark on the landscape. The four-year-old LONHRO mare set the pace and got up to win on a Heavy 9 at Matamata over 1600m last start, and proved she can run along on the firm when fighting on the speed to go down to HAPPY YOUMZAIN on the Cambridge synthetic the run prior. Joe Doyle in the saddle and likely to ride it like he stole it.

☆☆

BENCHMARK 65 HANDICAP
RACE 9 - 1400m

SHE'S UNTOUCHABLE / SUPER FLY / AMUSEMENT

The CAPITALIST mare SHE'S UNTOUCHABLE looks primed to hit top form and only has to overcome this slightly awkward gate. Trained by Stephen Marsh and owned by the Bourbon Lane team, the mare won at New Plymouth just on a year ago, then delivered a brave performance for 3rd behind SETHIO in the Gr.3 Bonecrusher Stakes (1400m). Bit harder the other side of Christmas, before being run down on Champions Day at Ellerslie and a 4th behind VEGAS QUEEN in the Gr.2 Wellington Guineas. Nice 3rd last start and should be able to get back to her best with Cartwright steering.

☆☆☆☆

SUPER FLY is capable of really turning it on late in a race and flew late on the Cambridge synthetic in August when running second. Shifted across heels to finish 3rd here at Ellerslie over 1300m two back and ultimately the GHIBELLINES mare should be in the perfect physical state of fitness to face this trip. Grew wings to win here last May as the staying pedigree allows her to hold up back in a field before finding top gear while others are slowing. A firm track should be ideal for the Conor & Sarah Fahy runner and well worth chucking into combos around the $13 mark. 

☆☆☆

This ALMANZOR mare AMUSEMENT trained by the Weatherley's has shown enough in only three starts and will be ridden by Sam over the 1400m. Trialled effectively twice before a 4th at Matamata on debut in March. Back on wide on the turn, but ran on well coming down the middle of the track. Set the pace returning in the next over 1400m at Taupo, kicking away to win her maiden with something in hand. Bit tougher when trying to dominate from the front at the latest, and fought on for 5th at Ellerslie. Bit wiser now, and with a fair bit of toe she could go for broke here.

☆☆

3YO & 4YO MAIDEN
RACE 2 - 1200m

GOLDEN WINGS / ARGO / SAPSPERALLA

We know a few people are looking for redemption on this well-bred SUPER SETH gelding GOLDEN WINGS and he gets his chance returning to the scene of the crime. Run down late on debut over 1200m here and trialed up effectively before jumping on the pace, before being headed by MISS FLADGATE in the final stages. He is out of a stunning mare in XANADU who won the Gr.1 Windsor Park Plate and Thoroughbred Breeders, and 2nd in a Telegraph and Waikato Sprint. With this type of pedigree, you'd have to believe a winning performance is close at hand and these fine speed elements show out. Should be hard to stop on Tuesday.

☆☆☆☆

Plenty of time for this ALMANZOR gelding in ARGO and he can threaten here with the right run. His mother is the brilliant racemare UNTAMED DIAMOND, so there should be some supreme power bubbling under the surface. Trialled up very well twice, defeating TRANSCEND in one, then raced particularly green on debut as a two-year-old. Returned in September, but was no match when finishing 2nd to the new star, WELL WRITTEN over 1200m at Ellerslie. Unlucky last start when racing three wide without cover throughout, but held on for fourth. Tony Pike will be hopeful a few elements fall his way from this gate and a better performance with Cartwright up again.

☆☆☆

One for a price is the Danica Guy trained SAPSPERALLA, who has shown a smidgen of ability, but tends to turn up for the party far too late. The lightly raced OCEAN PARK mare looked reasonable at the start of her career with multiple placings, then ran a fine 2nd to SWEYNESDAY here at Auckland in April 2024. Four mediocre runs in the spring, with some suggestion the mare was holding her breath, then not seen for 11 months until two weeks ago when 5th here at Ellerslie and a tad keen. If able to settle 2nd-up with Kozzi aboard, we could see a leap in improvement jumping from a sweet gate. High risk but getting long odds, so TOP4.

☆☆

MAIDEN 1600M

RACE 3 - 1600m

LA FLORIDA / DREAM MAKER / DON'T TELL THE MRS

Trainer Shane Crawford was pretty coy about his SWISS ACE mare LA FLORIDA, who has looked the part in only two starts. Settled back on debut at Avondale over 1200m and came wider from the rear to fight into 4th. Better effort pressing forward from the back to finish 2nd to PERFECT PETE over 1400m at Waverley and will appreciate the step up to the mile. Soft gate here with Matt Cameron in the saddle, so appears a serious chance here in an even maiden field.

☆☆☆☆

DREAM MAKER from the Ritchie/Murray stable is a three-year-old ALMANZOR gelding who will be well-suited up to the mile. Won his first two barrier trials at Avondale before a difficult debut run, bustled around near the 1000m, then forced wide on the turn. Settled further forward over 1400m at Te Aroha in his only other start and did well to run 2nd. His dam is from ZABEEL, therefore any extra distance will be advantageous.

☆☆☆

George Rooke looks a good fit for DON'T TELL THE MRS after Cameron rode the first two, and the three-year-old VADAMOS gelding has shown more than enough. He is from a RED RANSOM mare in NORTH OF SUNSET who mixed it up with some good gallopers. Bit green on debut but ran on late over 1400m at Tauranga, before an awkward start over the mile, then acted restlessly during the run and weakened away out wide. Good gate here and wouldn't surprise if he loomed up late.

☆☆

BEST BET: EL VENCEDOR

NEXT BEST: GOLDEN WINGS

BEST VALUE: SUPER FLY

WILDCARD: RISQUE RULER